National Bureau of Statistics- Confidence in achieving the expected annual economic growth target of around 5% is increasing
On October 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to discuss the national economic performance for the first three quarters of 2024. During the event, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Laiyun, addressed the question of whether the annual GDP growth target of around 5% could be reached. He noted that based on the economic performance observed in the first three quarters and the effectiveness of new policy implementations, there are increasing favorable conditions to support economic stabilization and recovery, which boosts confidence in achieving the 5% target.
Firstly, GDP growth for the first three quarters stood at 4.8%, laying a solid foundation for the annual goal. This growth, though hard-won, is significant given the complex and volatile macroeconomic environment this year, characterized by increased external pressures and internal structural adjustments. Despite these challenges, China’s economy has shown resilience and maintained steady performance, demonstrating its robust potential and setting a base for future growth.
Secondly, positive changes in economic performance in September have enhanced confidence in development. Following the Central Political Bureau meeting, a series of new policies were rapidly rolled out, significantly bolstering market confidence. With renewed confidence, businesses are more inclined to invest, and consumers are more willing to spend, leading to positive shifts in various expectations.
Thirdly, the synergy of policies will boost economic recovery. A variety of measures addressing investment, consumption, and industrial development will yield positive effects. There is ample room for further policy adjustments, and the existing policies carry substantial weight. These policies are being implemented swiftly across the country to transform intentions into tangible outcomes, thereby greatly energizing economic development. Additionally, recent policy initiatives not only aim to stabilize overall economic growth but also to optimize structures and promote the development of new productive forces. This is complemented by a series of reform proposals issued after the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Party Congress, creating a cohesive force among total policies, industrial strategies, and structural reforms.
Fourthly, some leading indicators suggest a positive trend of economic stabilization and recovery. For instance, monitoring of electricity consumption and fluctuations in industrial material prices during early October, along with data from the Golden Week holiday, indicate a high probability of economic improvement in the fourth quarter. Price movements, especially in production materials, are crucial indicators of economic performance. In early October, 33 out of 50 important monitored production materials saw price increases compared to late September, while only 14 experienced decreases. These price recoveries bode well for business conditions. Moreover, data from the Golden Week holiday illustrated the potential of Chinese consumer spending, with increased travel numbers; the Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported a 5.9% year-on-year rise in domestic travel during the holiday, with spending up 6.3% and travel numbers surpassing those from the same period in 2019 by 7.9%.
“Considering these factors, we can comprehensively assess that the economy will continue the stabilization and recovery trend observed in September during the fourth quarter. We are confident in achieving our annual goals,” said Sheng Laiyun.